Dr. Charles Roehrig is a vice president and director of Altarum’s Center for Sustainable Health Spending. A health care economist and econometrician, he specializes in health sector modeling and analysis.

Dr. Roehrig has many years of experience in forecasting health workforce supply and requirements. He is the lead designer of a number of models used by the U.S. Bureau of Health Professions (BHPr), including the Physician Supply Model (PSM) and Physician Demand Model (PDM). He recently developed physician supply and requirements estimates for the State of Michigan.

Dr. Roehrig is the lead designer of the Altarum Health Sector Model (AHSM), which represents the process by which population health status, access to care, and payment rates combine to determine national and state health expenditures. He is currently applying AHSM to the financial analysis of state-level health reform proposals. Previous applications include forecasting national health expenditures in a consumer-driven health care environment (presented to the 2006 National Consumer Driven Health Care Summit) and a study of early retirees who are at risk of losing their employer-sponsored coverage.

Dr. Roehrig is also developing time-series estimates of national expenditures by medical condition. These estimates are benchmarked to official government estimates of personal health expenditures from the National Health Expenditure Accounts. Thus, they cover spending by the civilian non-institutional population as well as the various institutionalized populations and the military. These estimates will provide policymakers with critical information on trends in spending by medical condition. They will also create the basis for adding medical condition forecasts to AHSM.

Other current research interests include: the impact of overall economic performance on the health sector; modeling the determinants of spending by medical condition; modeling individual preferences for alternative benefit designs; and health insurer risk-based capital requirements.

Dr. Roehrig has lectured in economics at the University of Michigan and served as a research associate of the University of Michigan School of Public Health. In addition to his applied research, he has published in the field of theoretical econometrics in academic journals such as Econometrica and the Journal of Econometrics.

Dr. Roehrig holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan, a master of science degree in statistics from the University of Michigan, and a bachelor of arts degree in economics from Amherst College.

Recent Posts by Charles Roehrig

Expanded Coverage Appears To Explain Much Of The Recent Increase In Health Job Growth

The timing of the acceleration of health sector hiring corresponds to the recent expansion of health insurance coverage, but there has been little direct evidence of a relationship. We use state-level data to show that much of the acceleration in health jobs can be explained by expanded coverage.

What Is Behind The Post-Recession Bend In The Health Care Cost Curve?

It has been a while since I last had the opportunity to analyze the slowdown in health spending and the extent to which it represents a lasting bend in the cost curve, as opposed to lingering effects of the “Great Recession or other temporary changes.” (See Note 1) Distinguishing Health Care...

Further Thoughts On The Recession And Health Spending

Much has been made of the slowdown in health spending growth and the role played by the economy. I have to confess that my first take, after studying plots of business cycles and health spending, was that health spending “had a mind of its own” and paid no attention to business cycles....

The Complex Economics Of Disease Prevention And Longevity

In August, the Center for Sustainable Health Spending (CSHS) was awarded a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation to, among other things, examine the relationship between disease prevention and health care costs. This project heightened my interest in the wonderfully-researched report...

GDP+0: Prospects And Challenges Of Bending The Health Care Cost Curve

Editor's note: In addition to Kenneth Kaufman and Charles Roehrig (photos and linked bios above), this post is coauthored by Paul Hughes-Cromwick, a health economist and Senior Analyst at Altarum Institute and Charles Kim, a Senior Vice President at Kaufman Hall. Health care costs are a...

2011 Health Spending Growth Ticks Up: Should We Be Concerned?

I am taking a break from analyzing national health spending sustainable growth rates to look at recent patterns of growth. I was inspired by the September 25 spending estimates from the Health Care Cost Institute (HCCI) showing an uptick in the growth rate for 2011 to 4.6 percent. Their press...

October 1, 2012Costs and Spending

What Is “Sustainable” Health Spending?

As we embark upon a presidential campaign season, we can anticipate many lively debates on the topics of taxation and spending in this nation.  As health spending in the Unites States accounts for 18 percent of our gross domestic product – a rate often called unsustainable – it is critical that...

February 3, 2012Costs and Spending

A Brief History Of Health Spending Since 1965

Since last March when we began tracking national health expenditures (NHE) on a monthly basis, we have been wondering when the health spending share of GDP would hit the 18 percent threshold. The recent downward revision of historical GDP estimates has provided the answer – it already happened...