April 15th, 2014
On April 14, 2014, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, together with the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, released an updated estimate on the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act. The CBO report brings good news for the ACA. The CBO projects now that the ACA’s coverage provisions will cost $5 billion less for this year than it projected just two months ago. Over the 2015 to 2024 period, CBO projects that the ACA will cost $104 billion less than it projected in February. At the same time, the CBO projects that the number of uninsured Americans will in fact decrease by an additional one million over the next decade, by 26 rather than 25 million, as it estimated in February.
The CBO report estimates that the net cost of the ACA’s coverage provisions will be $36 billion in 2014, $1,383 billion over the 2015 to 2024 period. This estimate consists of $1,839 billion for premium tax credits and cost-sharing reduction payments, Medicaid, CHIP, and small employer tax credits, offset by $456 billion in receipts from penalty payments, the excise tax on high-premium insurance plans, and the effects on tax revenues of projected changes in employer coverage. The CBO report does not include an estimate of the total reduction in the federal deficit attributable to the ACA, as the CBO has concluded that it is no longer possible to estimate the net effect of ACA changes on existing federal programs, but the most recent CBO estimate from 2012 projected that the ACA would reduce the federal deficit over the 2013 to 2022 period by $109 billion. Given projected further reductions in Medicare spending projected in a CBO budget report also released on April 14, it is reasonable to believe that the ACA’s impact on the budget may be even greater than earlier estimated.Read the rest of this entry »