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Early Evidence On Medicare ACOs And Next Steps For The Medicare ACO Program (Updated)


January 22nd, 2015

Note: Pratyusha Katikaneni and Carmen Diaz also contributed to this post. They are both research assistants at the Engelberg Center for Health Care Reform, The Brookings Institution.

On December 1, CMS released a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP), which requests feedback for changes CMS is considering for the Medicare accountable care organization (ACO) programs in 2016 and beyond. The proposal suggests significant potential alterations to the program, many of which we recently reviewed, that would address major issues that ACOs and others have raised: uncertainty and inexperience at transitioning to increasing levels of risk, lack of timely and accurate data, changes in attributed patient populations from year-to-year, and financial benchmarks that fail to account for regional variations and continue to reward high ACO performance over time.

The proposed rule raises more issues than it settles, but it clearly indicates that CMS is open to meaningful public comments and will make important revisions in the MSSP. However, the proposal also illustrates the challenges of resolving these issues in a way that both assures substantial ACO participation and improvement, as well as Medicare savings.

Ideally, big changes in key features in a major program like the MSSP would be based on extensive empirical evidence on what determines success in the program. Unfortunately, only limited evidence, including case studies and some comparative data, is available on the determinants of success for Medicare ACOs, and thus on the MSSP. Data released by CMS in September, which we previously reviewed, showed that the MSSP has generated over $700 million in savings to date relative to the spending benchmarks in the program. This is around 1 percent of the costs of care for beneficiaries affected by Medicare ACO initiatives.

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Unpacking The Medicare Shared Savings Proposed Rule: Geography And Policy


January 22nd, 2015

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently announced a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs). The rulemaking contains several proposals that if enacted, would fundamentally change the underlying incentives for providers to participate in the program. These proposed reforms address issues such as data sharing, renewals of participation agreements, beneficiary attribution, incentives to move to two-sided risk, and lastly, reforms to the benchmark calculations against which ACOs compete to earn savings.

The NPRM comes on the heels of a September 16, 2014 release of performance results for MSSP ACOs that began their performance years by 2013. Under the current program rules, ACOs that successfully reported quality performance data and whose savings exceeded their “minimum savings rate” were eligible to share in savings with Medicare. The MSSP program allows ACOs to choose either one-sided risk (Track 1, only upside potential to earn savings) or two-sided risk (Track 2, both upside and downside potential to earn savings/incur losses) with the final sharing amount based on achieving quality targets (up to 50 percent for Track 1 and 60 percent for Track 2). A vast majority of ACOs enrolled in Track 1, the one-sided risk option. Of the 220 ACOs in the program that participated in the first performance year, 53 earned shared savings, 52 saved money but not enough to meet the required “minimum savings rates,” and the other 115 did not accrue savings (spending on patients assigned to the ACO was greater than projected).

In February 2014, the CMS asked stakeholders for input as to how to improve its ACO programs, feedback which they used to generate the NPRM. Many ACOs and other stakeholders argued that failures to achieve savings over and above minimum savings rates were a partial result of residing in low spending areas. In this post, we examine the merits of this contention and consider the policy implications of our results and their bearing on some of the modifications of the MSSP program that CMS has proposed. We also discuss other strategies for improving the program CMS did not mention in the NPRM.

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CMS Spending Report Leads Health Affairs 2014 Top-Ten List


January 13th, 2015

A report on 2012 health spending by analysts at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary was the most-read Health Affairs article in 2014. To celebrate the New Year, Health Affairs is making this piece and all the articles on the journal’s 2014 top-ten list freely available to all readers for two weeks.

Health Affairs publishes annual retrospective analyses of National Health Expenditures by the CMS analysts, as well as their health spending projections for the coming decade. In the latest installment in this series — which also made our 2014 top ten — the analysts reported on 2013 health spending and discussed their findings at a Washington DC briefing. The two reports documented continued slow growth in health spending; the 2013 report featured the slowest rate of health spending growth since CMS began tracking NHE in 1960.

Next on the 2014 Health Affairs most-read list was an article on PepsiCo’s workplace wellnesss program. John Caloyeras and coauthors at RAND and PepsiCo found that the diseases management component of the program saved money, but the lifestyle management component did not. This was followed by two Narrative Matters essays by Charlotte Yeh and Diane Meier; another Narrative Matters piece, by Janice Lynn Schuster, rounded out the list at number ten.

The full top-ten list is below. And check out the 2014 most-read Health Affairs Blog posts and GrantWatch Blog posts.

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Reconsidering Pauly And Coauthors’ ‘Economic Framework For Preventive Care Advice’


January 12th, 2015

In the November issue of Health Affairs, Mark Pauly and coauthors criticize the lack of cost-effectiveness considerations in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which mandates that health plans include preventive care free at the point of use. The bodies critiqued, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, convene health experts to develop recommendations for immunizations and other preventive services.

According to the authors, the task entrusted to these bodies by the ACA, of offering sound advice on preventive care without considering its cost-effectiveness, is “impossible to do well.” They propose instead an “economic framework” under which only services with “substantial external benefits” (e.g. a vaccination for contagious disease) would be mandated for coverage. We believe this position is misguided.

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Exhibit Of The Month: Federal Health Spending On Children


January 5th, 2015

Editor’s note: This post is part of an ongoing Exhibit of the Month series.

As we begin the new year and look forward to the release of our January issue later today, we also take a look back at the “exhibit of the month” from our December thematic issue on children’s health. The exhibit, from the article, “The Scheduled Squeeze On Children’s Programs: Tracking The Implications Of Projected Federal Spending Patterns,” looks at health spending on children as a percentage of total federal spending on children from 1960 to 2013.

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Rethinking The Gruber Controversy: Americans Aren’t Stupid, But They’re Often Ignorant — And Why


December 29th, 2014

M.I.T. economist Jonathan Gruber, whom his colleagues in the profession hold in very high esteem for his prowess in economic analysis, recently appeared before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Gruber was called to explain several caustic remarks he had offered on tortured language and provisions in the Affordable Care Act (the ACA) that allegedly were designed to fool American voters into accepting the ACA.

Many of these linguistic contortions, however, were designed not so much to fool voters, but to force the Congressional Budget Office into scoring taxes as something else. But Gruber did call the American public “stupid” enough to be misled by such linguistic tricks and by other measures in the ACA — for example, taxing health insurers knowing full well that insurers would pass the tax on to the insured.

During the hearing, Gruber apologized profusely and on multiple occasions for his remarks. Although at least some economists apparently see no warrant for such an apology, I believe it was appropriate, as in hindsight Gruber does as well. “Stupid” is entirely the wrong word in this context; Gruber should have said “ignorant” instead.

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New Findings About The ACA’s Impact On Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance


December 19th, 2014

Since the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was signed into law, some of its critics have predicted that businesses would discontinue offering employer-sponsored health insurance, moving employees into the individual Marketplaces. If widespread dropping of employer-sponsored health insurance were to occur, government costs could increase since many low-wage workers would qualify for federal subsidies in the Marketplaces.

A new study, released today as a Web First by Health Affairs, examined data from the Health Reform Monitoring Survey for June 2013 through September 2014, assessing any early changes of employer-sponsored insurance under the ACA. Authors Fredric Blavin, Adele Shartzer, Sharon Long, and John Holahan report that the percentage of workers with employer offers for health insurance was basically unchanged between June 2013 and September 2014: 82.7 percent versus 82.2 percent. The authors are all affiliated with the Health Policy Center at the Urban Institute, in Washington, D.C. 

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The Medicare Shared Savings Program: CMS Turns To Stakeholders On Incentivizing ACO Risk


December 19th, 2014

On December 1, 2014, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) released its long awaited Proposed Rule to update regulation and operation of the Medicare Shared Savings Program (“MSSP”). In response to concerns raised by participating accountable care organizations, CMS proposes to revise the MSSP program in several ways to provide greater flexibility for ACOs.

However, in important areas CMS may not have gone far enough. This post describes the framework CMS has set forth and then suggests several ways in which the proposal could, in our view, be improved to achieve the CMS objective of encouraging ACOs to bear more risk. In particular, CMS should consider using its waiver authority more robustly; allowing Medicare beneficiaries to designate their primary care providers, and by extension their ACO; and revising the MSSP risk-adjustment methodology to better reflect the changing risk profiles of ACOs.

CMS is actively seeking stakeholder input, which may indicate agency recognition that further changes beyond those in the propose rule are needed. By all indications, stakeholder input will be seriously considered; more than any time in recent memory, stakeholder comments will make a difference in the shape of the Final Rule. This presents a unique opportunity for stakeholders and we urge concerned parties to share their perspectives through comments – the deadline for submitting comments is February 6, 2015.

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The Dane Difference: Why Are Dane County’s Exchange Premiums Lower?


December 18th, 2014

During the next few years, states and the federal government will likely seek solutions to control costs and improve quality in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance marketplaces. State and federal policymakers should look carefully at the decades-long success of the Wisconsin State Employee Health Plan (WSEHP) in controlling the rapid rise of health insurance costs in Dane County—where Madison, Wisconsin’s state capital, and the University of Wisconsin, are located—as they seek to improve the effectiveness of the ACA’s marketplaces and health insurance costs in general.

The WSEHP consistently obtains substantially lower health insurance premiums in Dane County than in Wisconsin’s 71 other counties. In 2013, an individual plan in the WSEHP was about $1,400 cheaper annually in Dane County, or 16 percent less than the average in the rest of the state; and a family plan was about $3,500 cheaper, also a 16 percent difference. This Dane difference has existed for at least a decade, with the gap slowly widening over that time.

Why does WSEHP get much lower premiums in Dane County than in the state’s 71 other counties, and what lessons can policymakers learn from this difference?

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Implementing Health Reform: Beneath The Hood Of The ‘Cromnibus’


December 12th, 2014

The “Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2015” or “Cromnibus” legislation moving through Congress contains a number of provisions that relate to the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

Risk Corridors

The provision that has been most widely noted so far requires the risk corridor program to be budget neutral for 2014. The risk corridor program moves funds from qualified health plans (QHPs) that have lower than anticipated allowable costs to those with higher than anticipated allowable costs. Section 1342 of the ACA, which creates the risk corridor program, contains no explicit appropriation.

A report issued earlier this year by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), which is the final authority on the legitimacy of government expenditures, determined that the continuing resolution for 2014 permitted the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to fund the risk corridor program for 2014 both from payments collected from plans with lower than anticipated costs, which were properly characterized as user fees, and from funds transferred from other CMS accounts. No risk corridor payments were in fact payable in 2014, however, as risk corridor payments will first be made in 2015 for 2014.

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Why I Oppose Payment Reform


December 12th, 2014

I recently gave the keynote address at the New York State Health Foundation Conference “Payment Reform: Expanding the Playing Field.” This blog post is adapted from those remarks (you can watch the half-hour speech beginning around the eight-minute mark).

I had my epiphany shortly after I announced my departure from the National Academy for State Health Policy (NASHP) about nine months ago. In an effort to help find my successor, I contacted some executive search firms. One firm quoted what they referred to as the “market price.” When I pressed them to tell me how much effort this price represented, they declined to do so. Ultimately, I recommended that NASHP contract with a search firm that charged by the hour.

It was then that I realized that, given the choice between capitation (a fixed fee for the outcome I desired) and fee-for-service (an hourly rate with no accountability for the outcome), I, as a purchaser, chose fee-for-service. Only a hypocrite would go around talking about the importance of payment reform, while secretly conducting business the old way!

Having given the matter some further thought, I present my five reasons for opposing payment reform:

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The Accidental Administrative Law Of Policymaking In The Medicare Program


December 11th, 2014

Editor’s note: This post is part of a series of several posts stemming from presentations given at “The Law of Medicare and Medicaid at Fifty,” a conference held at Yale Law School on November 6 and 7.

When Congress establishes a new regulatory program, it lodges the program in a regulatory agency or executive department. A regulatory agency generally has presidentially appointed commissioners with staggered terms and expert staff. This design provides insulation from politics and facilitates applying technical expertise to regulatory problems. Also, administrative agencies make rules and policy and have the powers of investigation, adjudication, and sanction to enforce compliance. Administrative law, an essential instrument of democracy, regulates the operation and procedures of government agencies.

The Social Security Amendments of 1965 established Medicare in the Social Security Administration (SSA). Medicare initially contained two parts, hospital insurance for hospital and related services and supplementary medical insurance for physician and other outpatient services. Pursuant to contract, Medicare contractors handle claims and pay providers as well as adjudicate appeals and make program policy.

This post chronicles the development administrative law, policymaking, and regulation in the Medicare program. It describes how the program evolved a revolutionary collaborative model of regulation that could provide a useful guide for other programs.

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Two Theologies Have Blocked Medicare-For-All


December 11th, 2014

Editor’s note: This post is part of a series of several posts stemming from presentations given at “The Law of Medicare and Medicaid at Fifty,” a conference held at Yale Law School on November 6 and 7.

In the 50 years since Medicare was enacted, Congress has never seriously considered extending Medicare to all Americans, nor even lowering Medicare’s eligibility age below 65. This pattern persisted even during those periods when national health insurance was at the top of the national agenda. This is not what the original advocates of Medicare anticipated when Medicare was enacted in 1965. They saw Medicare as the cornerstone of a national system of health insurance that would eventually cover all Americans.

Two Myths that Undercut Medicare-for-All: Managed Care and Competition

In the paper we presented at the Yale conference, we reviewed short- and long-term factors affecting the debate about Medicare over its lifetime, and then turned to a discussion of two long-term factors: the rise of what came to be called the managed care movement, and the resurgence of a longstanding campaign promoting the idea that competition can right the wrongs of American medicine.

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Children’s Health: Health Affairs’ December Issue


December 8th, 2014

The December issue of Health Affairs includes a number of studies examining current threats to the health and health care of America’s children, and what can be done to meet their needs within an ever-evolving health care system. Some of the subjects covered: the role of Medicaid in reducing early-term elective deliveries; how pediatric services are covered in the state insurance Marketplaces; Medicaid spending on children with complex medical conditions; and the effect of abuse and neglect on children’s health and school engagement.

This issue of Health Affairs is supported by The W.K. Kellogg Foundation as well as by the Children’s Hospital Association, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Nemours, the Annie E. Casey Foundation, and The Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative.

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Section 1332 Waivers And The Future Of State Health Reform


December 5th, 2014

Editor’s note: This post is part of a series of several posts stemming from presentations given at “The Law of Medicare and Medicaid at Fifty,” a conference held at Yale Law School on November 6 and 7.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) turbocharges state innovation through a number of provisions, such as the creation of the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation, funding for states to establish customized insurance exchanges, and Medicaid reforms such as health homes and projects geared toward the dual eligible population. Yet another component of the law holds even more potential for broad reform. Buried in Section 1332 of the law is a sparkplug for innovation called the State Innovation Waivers program.

Also known as 2017 waivers or Wyden waivers, 1332s offer wide latitude to states for transforming their health insurance and health care delivery systems. According to the statute, states can request that the federal government waive basically every major coverage component of the ACA, including exchanges, benefit packages, and the individual and employer mandates. But the cornerstone of 1332 waivers is the financing. To fund their reforms, states can receive the aggregate amount of subsidies—including premium tax credits, cost-sharing reductions, and small business tax credits—that would have otherwise gone to the state’s residents. Depending on the size of the state, the annual payment from the federal government for alternate coverage reform could reach into the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

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Health Affairs Event Reminder: Children’s Health


December 4th, 2014

Threats to children’s health have changed dramatically over the past few generations, but America’s health care system has been slow to transform to meet children’s evolving needs. The December 2014 thematic issue of Health Affairs examines the current state of children’s health, health care delivery, and coverage.

You are invited to join us on Monday, December 8, at a forum featuring authors from the new issue at the National Press Club in Washington, DC.  Panels will cover financing, delivery, access, and the social determinants of children’s health, and spotlight innovative programs that are making a difference.

WHEN: 
Monday, December 8, 2014
9:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.

WHERE: 
National Press Club
529 14th Street NW
Washington, DC, 13th Floor

REGISTER NOW!

Follow live tweets from the briefing @Health_Affairs, and join in the conversation with #HA_ChildHealth. 

See the full agenda. Among the confirmed speakers are:

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Health Affairs Web First: National Health Spending In 2013 Continued Pattern Of Low Growth


December 3rd, 2014

A new analysis from the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) estimates that in 2013 health care spending in the United States grew at a rate of 3.6 percent in 2013 to $2.9 trillion, or $9,255 per person. The increase was slower than the 4.1 percent growth in 2012 and continued a pattern of low growth that has held relatively steady at between 3.6 percent and 4.1 percent annual growth for five consecutive years.

The continued low growth in health spending is consistent with the modest overall economic growth since the end of the recent severe recession and with the long-standing relationship between economic growth and health spending—particularly several years after the end of economic recessions, when health spending and overall economic growth tend to converge. As a result, health spending’s share of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) remained at 17.4 percent in 2013.

The study is being released today by Health Affairs as a Web First and will appear in the January issue of Health Affairs. It was discussed this morning at a reporters briefing in the National Press Club.

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The Payment Reform Landscape: Tying It All Together


December 2nd, 2014

Throughout 2014, Health Affairs Blog has been generous in allowing us to share our insights and opinions on a monthly basis as we examine the evidence for different payment reform models. Along this journey, we’ve taken an in-depth look at how well different payment models are proving to enhance the quality and affordability of care.

We’ve taken a few detours to explore some of the building blocks of a higher-value health care system, like price transparency. And we took some time to share findings from our 2014 National Scorecard on Payment Reform, which revealed the commercial sector is moving toward more value oriented payment.

So with 2015 almost upon us, what did we learn from all this exploration? And based on our learnings, what are the logical next steps for our work at Catalyst for Payment Reform (CPR), and for health care leaders’ efforts as they think about moving the needle on payment reform?

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Health Affairs December Briefing: Children’s Health


November 24th, 2014

Threats to children’s health have changed dramatically over the past few generations, but America’s health care system has been slow to transform to meet children’s evolving needs. The December 2014 thematic issue of Health Affairs examines the current state of children’s health, health care delivery, and coverage.

You are invited to join us on Monday, December 8, at a forum featuring authors from the new issue at the National Press Club in Washington, DC.  Panels will cover financing, delivery, access, and the social determinants of children’s health, and spotlight innovative programs that are making a difference.

WHEN: 
Monday, December 8, 2014
9:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.

WHERE: 
National Press Club
529 14th Street NW
Washington, DC, 13th Floor

REGISTER NOW!

Follow live tweets from the briefing @Health_Affairs, and join in the conversation with #HA_ChildHealth. 

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Sovaldi, Harvoni, And Why It’s Different This Time


November 21st, 2014

With the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)’s approval of Harvoni, the successor to Gilead Science’s Sovaldi, the alarm bells have officially rung on breakthrough hepatitis C treatments. One can’t open a newspaper or scan a Twitter feed without stumbling on at least one reference to either of the these two drugs for hepatitis C — an often debilitating viral infection impacting the liver that affects somewhere between 3 to 5 million Americans and several hundred million people worldwide. Hepatitis C infection is often asymptomatic and can have long latency periods. In up to 20 percent of people, chronic infection can lead to liver failure, liver cancer, and potentially liver transplantation.

Gilead Sciences paid $11 billion to acquire the rights to Sovaldi — a drug that offers significant improvement in viral clearance over existing therapies — and launched the drug in the U.S. market at a price ($1,000 per pill, or $84,000 per course of treatment) that is usually reserved for drugs targeting “orphan conditions” for much smaller populations. Not surprisingly, Congress has taken an interest, patient advocacy groups are organizing, the health care community is holding conferences, coalitions are channeling a growing national outrage about the price, and public and private payers are stymied by the challenge of responsibly managing utilization of the drug.

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